Annual Report 2019

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Heat waves in the sea
The oceans, glaciers and permafrost soils will change significantly with climate change in the course of this century.

Sustainability

A climate never seen before

Sea levels are rising faster than previously assumed, heat waves in the sea are becoming more frequent and most of Europe's glacier mass is disappearing. This is something illustrated by the special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from September 2019, to which Thomas Frölicher and Carolina Adler from the University of Bern contributed as lead authors.

 

Sea levels will rise by 43 to 84 centimeters by 2100, putting areas under water which today are home to millions of people. Between 2015 and 2100, the world's glaciers will lose 18 to 36 percent of their mass, those in Europe even more than 80 percent. If greenhouse gas emissions remain high, 49 to 89 percent of the shallow permafrost soils could thaw by 2100 and thus lose stability. This is the current state of science climate researchers prepared for the IPCC report. 

In a nutshell

“The open sea, the Arctic and Antarctic seem to be a long way away for a lot of people. But the population worldwide, including the people here in Switzerland, depends on these systems.”


Prof. Dr. Thomas Frölicher, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)

In terms of the oceans, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is talking about a new climate unprecedented since pre-industrial times. There will be 50 times more marine heat waves by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high. The oceans will become more acidic, contain less and less oxygen and primary production will decrease. “We are already seeing striking changes in the oceans, from the surface right down to their very depths, from the Poles to the Tropics. This change will affect the distribution and abundance of life everywhere in our seas,” says Thomas Frölicher, IPCC author from the University of Bern. Scientists are convinced that heat waves in the sea have negative effects on marine organisms such as corals, seaweed and kelp, as well as entire ecosystems. 

“The open sea, the Arctic and Antarctic seem to be a long way away for a lot of people,” says Frölicher: “But the population worldwide, including the people here in Switzerland, depends on these systems – for weather and climate, for food and trade, for energy, trade, transport, relaxation and tourism, health and well-being, culture and identity.”

 

In a nutshell

“By greatly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, we can preserve significant parts of the iconic high mountain landscapes.”


Dr. Carolina Adler, Mountain Research Initiative, University of Bern

Permafrost soils will lose stability

The slopes in the Alps and elsewhere are becoming unstable due to ever warmer permafrost soils, releasing carbon reservoirs in the polar regions that have been there for thousands of years. By the end of 2100, this will result in dozens or even hundreds of gigatons entering the atmosphere as carbon dioxide or methane, further heating up the climate. “By greatly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, we can preserve significant parts of the iconic high mountain landscapes,” says author Carolina Adler from the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) at the University of Bern and Executive Director of the Mountain Research Initiative, located at the University of Bern.

Reduce greenhouse gas emissions «urgently and ambitiously»

The authors of the IPCC report formulate many political, social and technical options for action and clearly point out the urgency: For sustainable development, greenhouse gas emissions would have to be reduced “urgently and ambitiously” and the consequences of climate change on the life-supporting oceans and the cryosphere would have to be alleviated, for example by expanding coastal protection through construction or planting.

Bern and the IPCC

Bernese climate research has a long tradition in the preparation of reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The University of Bern is probably the only institution in the world to have played a leading role in all five reports of the IPCC published to date. The climate and environment researchers Hans Oeschger and Uli Siegenthaler already played an important role in the first Assessment Report of the IPCC in 1990. In the fifth report, presented in 2013 and 2014, Thomas Stocker from Bern was Co-Chair of the IPCC working group focusing on the scientific and technical aspects of global warming. The secretariat of Working Group I (The Physical Science Basis), headed up by Stocker, was affiliated to the University of Bern. The picture shows Thomas Stocker, Professor of Climate Physics at the University of Bern, with Qin Dahe, who together co-chaired the Plenary Assembly of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC of the United Nations in September 2013.

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